Nov. 20, 2010 — On March 25, 2009, the House Energy & Commerce Committee’s Subcommittee on Energy & Environment held a hearing on “Preparing for Climate Change: Adaptation Policies and Programs.” Subcommittee member John Shimkus, a Republican who represents the 19th Congressional District in Illinois, said the following in his opening statement, pages 13-14:

The right of free speech is a great right that we have in this country. Very few times we use it to espouse our theological religious beliefs, but we do have members of the clergy here as members of the panel. So I want to start with Genesis 8, verses 21 and 22. “Never again will I curse the ground because of man even though every inclination of his heart is evil from childhood, and never again will I destroy all living creatures as I have done. As long as the earth endures, seed time and harvest, cold and heat, summer and winter, day and night will never cease.” I believe that is the infallible word of God, and that is the way it is going to be for his creation.

The second verse comes from Matthew 24. “And he will send his angels with a loud trumpet call, and they will gather his elect from the four winds, from one end of the heavens to the other.” The earth will end only when God declares it is time to be over. Man will not destroy this earth. This earth will not be destroyed by a flood.

… Today we have 388 parts per million in the atmosphere. I think in the age of the dinosaurs when we had the most flora and fauna, we were probably at 4,000 parts per million. There is a theological debate that this is a carbon-starved planet, not too much carbon. And the cost of a cap-and-trade on the poor is now being discovered. … I have an IDNR report, Illinois Department of Natural Resources, that points to four mines that were closed specifically because of Clean Air Act amendments in 1990. I am going to share those with you later because we did have that discussion, and I do appreciate that.

I don’t remember his statement attracting any attention at the time, but it has received considerable media attention in the past few days because Representative Shimkus hopes to become chairman of the Energy & Commerce Committee when Republicans assume control of the House of Representatives in January. Perhaps you have seen some of the articles or video clips of the 2009 hearing. Stephen Colbert covered the story on November 17 in a segment called “Chair Apparent”.

The segment is funny in typical Colbert fashion, but we all ought to be concerned that the individual who may become the next chairman of the House Energy & Commerce Committee apparently believes that (1) we don’t need to fear climate change because God promised Noah He would not destroy the earth with another flood; (2) there isn’t too much carbon dioxide in our atmosphere – there’s too little; and (3) the Acid Rain Program (cap-and-trade) killed jobs.

With regard to the second point, it’s interesting Representative Shimkus acknowledges that there was an “age of the dinosaurs” when carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were higher.  Usually, individuals who interpret the Bible literally believe the earth is several thousand years old, not several billion years old, as the geological evidence indicates.

With regard to the third point, the World Resources Institute (WRI) just published a “Fact Sheet” entitled “For EPA Regulations, Cost Predictions Are Overstated”.

Citing government reports and other peer-reviewed literature, the Fact Sheet states, “Looking only at job losses inevitably ignores a larger truth: environmental spending creates jobs that offset losses… Plant closings and layoffs in response to environmental regulation are very rare, affecting only 1/10^th of 1 percent of all layoffs nationwide.”

If, in fact, the job losses Representative Shimkus referred to actually occurred and were attributable to the Acid Rain Program, that is regrettable.  There are several programs to help dislocated workers; everyone would agree that they should be entitled to assistance.  The question is whether the benefits to the entire society of the Acid Rain Program outweigh its costs.  As I have previously written in this column, the answer is resoundingly yes, by a ratio of 40-1, as the Office of Management & Budget (OMB) under President George W. Bush determined.

As the WRI Fact Sheet states, “public benefits associated with environmental regulations consistently outweigh the costs… For clean air and water regulations promulgated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [between October 1, 1999 and September 30, 2009] the estimated aggregate annual costs range from $26 to $29 billion, while benefits range from $82 to $533 billion.”  In other words, even using the highest cost and lowest benefit estimates yields a benefit-to-cost ratio of nearly 3-1.

I appreciate the fact that Representative Shimkus has sincerely-held religious convictions.  I, too, am a practicing Christian, and my beliefs influence how I approach my job.  It would be dishonest to suggest otherwise.  But among those beliefs is the unshakable notion that God gave us reason for a reason, if you’ll pardon the pun.  I believe God intends for us to put it to use to fashion public policies that care for Creation.  I agree with Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, leader of the Human Genome Project, and author of  The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief, that it is possible “to put forward a comfortable synthesis of what science teaches us about the natural world and what faith teaches us about God.”  Perhaps Representative Shimkus should get in touch with Dr. Collins, especially if he takes over the gavel at Energy and Commerce.

Oct. 31, 2010 — Former Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY) used to say, “People are entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts.” That should seem reasonable enough but it isn’t, apparently. There is a segment of the population  that looks with disdain on what Karl Rove contemptuously referred to as the “reality-based community” in a 2004 conversation with author Ron Suskind. According to Suskind, Rove defined the “reality-based community” as people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” Rove continued, “That’s not the way the world really works anymore. We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality” (my emphasis). This diseased thinking has moved from the fringes of society to form the core of current Republican ideology. Considering that Republicans are expected to gain numerous seats in the midterm elections on Tuesday, the consequences for the country are dire, particularly with regard to climate change policy.

There is widespread scientific consensus that climate change is occurring, increased greenhouse gas emissions are the principal cause, and human activity is largely responsible for the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, the most recent (2007) Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) unequivocally states that global warming is occurring and the probability that most of it is due to anthropogenic (human) causes is 90 percent or greater. Climate change is likely to induce sea level rise, more frequent and more intense heat waves, droughts, cyclones, and extreme high tides.

A 2007 report prepared for the Pentagon by the CNA Corporation entitled “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change” states, “. . . the trends are clear. The nature and pace of climate changes being observed today and the consequences projected by the consensus scientific opinion are grave and pose equally grave implications for our national security . . .  Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national security challenges for the United States. Accordingly, it is appropriate to start now to help mitigate the severity of some of these emergent challenges.”

To the “reality-based community” the threats posed by climate change to our national and economic security and to human health and the environment are clear. There is sufficient evidence to take immediate action to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. One possible approach would be to establish a cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases. The program could be modeled on the Acid Rain Program established under Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, a bill a Republican President (George H.W. Bush) signed into law, to reduce sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions.  In 2003, the Office of Management & Budget (OMB) determined that the Acid Rain Program accounted for the largest quantified human health benefits — over $70 billion annually — of any major federal regulatory program implemented in the previous 10 years and calculated that the benefits of the program exceed its costs by a ratio of 40 to 1. According to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Web site on Clean Air Market Programs, “Wet sulfate deposition, a major component of acid rain, is 25-50 percent lower than 1990 levels in most areas of the Northeast and Midwest. The ability of some lakes and streams to buffer acid deposition is improving in the Northeast, including the Adirondacks, a sign that recovery has begun.”

The program has worked and it has cost much less than its authors originally anticipated. According to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, “Climate Change: Costs and Benefits of the Cap-and-Trade Provisions of H.R. 2454,” when the Clean Air Act Amendments bill was being considered in 1990, the 2010 cost estimates for the Acid Rain Program closest to the actual costs were too high by 50 percent.

Admittedly, a cap-and trade program for greenhouse gases is more complicated. The Acid Rain Program applies to 3,000 stationary electric generating units responsible for two-thirds of the nation’s SO2 emissions. The sources of greenhouse gas emissions are not so concentrated or stationary. Electricity generation, for instance, accounts for just one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. Acid rain was a regional problem; climate change is a global problem.

The question is whether we should avoid dealing with a problem such as climate change because doing so would be difficult. Given the likely consequences of failing to act, I hope the answer to that question would be a resounding “no.”

I mention the Acid Rain Program because it demonstrates something important: 20 years ago we had the technical skill and political capability to design and implement an effective, efficient program to address a complex environmental problem. I think most scientists and policy-makers would agree that our technical skill to address a problem like climate change has improved over the past two decades. But our political capability has been seriously eroded and could be completely crippled on November 2.

A recent edition of the National Journal profiled the 21 Republicans who are running for open Senate seats or challenging incumbent Democrats in the midterm elections. The 21 were chosen, according to the Journal, because they have a better chance of winning election than other Republican challengers. The article is entitled “Extreme Makeover: 2010 Senate Edition” — for good reason.  The candidates profiled in the article may call themselves Republicans, but they are not conservatives.  They are radicals.  They will exert an influence on the Republican caucus and on the Senate disproportionate to their numbers because the Senate was deliberately designed to function as an entity where a determined minority can thwart the will of the majority, as we have seen with increasing frequency and frustration in the past several years.

The impact this group of freshman Senators will have on climate change policy will be devastating and potentially long-lasting. According to the Journal article, 20 of the 21 believe that climate change science is inconclusive or a downright hoax. All 21 oppose cap-and-trade legislation. To be fair, there are some Democrats in the House and Senate who also oppose cap-and-trade. But how will Congress be able to address climate change when one political party rejects a possible policy response in large part because its members deny the scientific consensus that it is even occurring?

I have worked in the Senate for over two decades. For a significant portion of that time, I worked for several moderate Republicans, a group that ought to be on the Endangered Species List. I have watched the Republican Party be taken over by its extremists. Rather than bend their ideology to reflect reality, they are determined to bend reality to reflect their ideology. Republican candidates running for Senate and House seats this fall claim they want to “take America back” (not forward!) and are in no mood to work in a collaborative fashion.

The Republican leadership has taken note. Last week, Representative Mike Pence (R-IN, 6^th), chairman of the House Republican Conference, said, “Look, the time to go along and get along is over. House Republicans know that. We’ve taken firm and principled stands against their big government plans throughout this Congress, and we’ve got, if the American people will send them, we’ve got a cavalry of men and women headed to Washington, D.C. that are going to stand with us.” Of course, the notion that Republicans have been compromising with Democrats over the past several years is risible.

Earlier this week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said in a National Journal interview,“The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.” On Wednesday, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH, 8^th) told radio show host Sean Hannity, “This is not a time for compromise, and I can tell you that we will not compromise on our principles.”

If one of those “principles” is a fierce pride in an anti-intellectual rejection of scientific consensus on subjects ranging from climate change to evolution, our nation is in peril. Fortunately, there is a solution: make sure you vote on Tuesday. Fortunately, the “reality-based community” is not a minority — unless its members fail to vote.